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The Financial Quarterly Q1 2021

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The Financial Quarterly

The Financial Quarterly

1st Quarter 2021

Goran Ognjenovic
https://independentadvisorsnw.com
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068

The first quarter of 2021 had a little bit of everything: politics, bubbles, meme stocks, rallies, and sudden drops. Let's take a look at how markets performed and what we might look forward to in the months to come.

Looking Back

How Did Markets Perform Last Quarter?

S&P 500

The broader U.S. market grew in Q1 on stimulus, optimism, and the economic recovery.1

NASDAQ

The tech-focused NASDAQ rallied on a new technology boom, but pulled back at quarter's end on interest rate fears.2

DOW 30

Blue chip stocks soared in Q1 on expectations of economic growth and stimulus.3

Looking Ahead

What Can We Expect in the Months Ahead?

U.S. Economic Outlook

Negative Positive

Equity Outlook

Negative Positive

Consumer Sentiment

Negative Positive

Labor Market

Negative Positive

Business Outlook

Negative Positive

Fiscal Policy

Negative Positive
"Despite continued challenges, markets had a strong performance in Q1. While uncertainty remains, we expect continued economic growth this quarter."

Bottom Line

Key Takeaways for Savvy Investors

Despite a lot of uncertainty around business reopenings, vaccination rates, and economic growth, equities delivered a solid performance last quarter. Looking back, while it's easy to focus on the quarter's overall performance, let's not forget that there were many dips and rallies along the way.

Bottom line, we can expect more volatility and uncertainty this year. After nearing record highs, it would not be surprising to see a market drop in the second quarter.

What lies ahead? A popular survey of economists suggests that the economy could grow ~7% this quarter as the economy continues to pick up steam.4 However, there are many variables and uncertainties baked into those projections: vaccination timelines, consumer spending, new government regulations, and business expectations.

Overall, I'm cautiously optimistic about where the economy and markets will go this quarter. However, I'm also keeping a close eye on market conditions, as continued uncertainty could drive sudden changes.

Questions? Please reach out. I'd be happy to chat.

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
info@independentadvisorsnw.com

Q4 2020 – Quarterly Portfolio Review

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This quarterly post reviews the composition and performance of several investment portfolios managed by our Investment Advisor. Portfolios we review are actual live portfolios for several clients and range from a conservative client who is already in retirement and looking for income to a very aggressive portfolio set up for young children with a 30-year investment horizon. The purpose of this post is to educate our investors and clients and help set expectations on how different portfolios perform over time. It also showcases how we think about and manage capital assets. We also show “Advisor View,” which is an overview of all portfolios’ composition and performance under our management.

Quarterly Portfolio Review
In this quarterly post, we review the composition and the performance of several actual live investment portfolios managed by our Investment Advisor.

Advisors View

Advisors view includes all client accounts, and all client allocated portfolios under our management. It’s a snapshot of the advisor dashboard we look at every day. 

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020FY 2020
-12.42%10.51%1.91%11.92%10.42%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities54.21%0.74%
Fixed Income8.39%0.00%
Real Estate8.61%0.00%
Other Assets0.07%9.29%
Fund Cash28.59%5.66%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America88.01%90.68%
Asia5.57%0.00%
Europe4.39%0.02%
South America0.79%0.00%
Africa0.49%0.00%
Oceania0.41%0.00%
Other0.34%9.32%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials1.46%0.00%
Cons Cyclical6.22%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical2.74%0.00%
Energy4.25%0.00%
Financials17.33%3.70%
Healthcare7.62%0.24%
Industrial5.02%0.23%
Real Estate7.98%0.17%
Technology13.58%0.01%
Telecom Services3.12%0.00%
Utilities1.50%0.00%
Cash28.59%84.31%
Fund Cash0.10%5.66%
Unclassified8.47%9.32%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Retiree Portfolio

Portfolio and client situation summary:

  • The client is already in retirement (as of 1/1/2020)
  • The client needs 20 years (estimated) of income and capital preservation
  • The client will not contribute to the portfolio
  • The investment portfolio is in conservative allocation

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020FY 2020
-4.29%3.63%1.51%4.02%4.72%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities23.33%0.00%
Fixed Income11.46%0.00%
Real Estate0.43%0.00%
Other Assets0.09%47.22%
Fund Cash0.06%52.78%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America94.22%52.78%
Asia1.83%0.00%
Europe2.61%0.00%
South America0.60%0.00%
Africa0.39%0.00%
Oceania0.16%0.00%
Other0.20%47.22%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials0.89%0.00%
Cons Cyclical2.34%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical4.20%0.00%
Energy1.78%0.00%
Financials3.52%0.00%
Healthcare3.73%0.00%
Industrial1.61%0.00%
Real Estate0.42%0.00%
Technology3.19%0.00%
Telecom Services1.30%0.00%
Utilities3.16%0.00%
Cash64.46%0.00%
Fund Cash0.06%52.78%
Unclassified9.76%47.22%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Retirement IRA Portfolio

Portfolio and client situation summary:

  • The client is currently working and is looking toward a 20/25-year time horizon before retirement (as of 1/1/2019)
  • The client will make an annual contribution based on annual maximums
  • The investment portfolio is in mid-to-aggressive allocation

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020FY 2020
-22.44%17.41%5.32%14.39%9.71%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities75.04%0.37%
Fixed Income14.05%0.00%
Real Estate7.90%0.00%
Other Assets0.06%22.50%
Fund Cash2.68%77.13%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America79.89%77.12%
Asia9.65%0.00%
Europe6.85%0.01%
South America1.31%0.00%
Africa0.97%0.00%
Oceania0.57%0.00%
Other0.82%22.87%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials2.60%0.00%
Cons Cyclical9.16%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical3.64%0.00%
Energy5.61%0.00%
Financials14.17%0.00%
Healthcare8.04%0.00%
Industrial6.98%0.00%
Real Estate8.44%0.00%
Technology17.38%0.00%
Telecom Services4.89%0.00%
Utilities2.42%0.00%
Cash0.63%0.00%
Fund Cash0.46%85.16%
Unclassified15.55%14.84%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Trust Brokerage Account for Children

Portfolio and client situation summary:

  • The revocable trust is created with a 30-year time horizon (as of 1/1/2019)
  • The trustee will make a modest but continuous monthly contribution
  • Investment portfolios is in aggressive allocation
  • Investment portfolio uses margin
  • ** Portfolio was 50% margined in late February 2020
Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020FY 2020
-38.30%44.55%11.76%28.78%28.35%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities94.02%0.01%
Fixed Income0.05%0.00%
Real Estate5.26%0.00%
Other Assets0.14%0.28%
Fund Cash0.13%99.65%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America84.52%99.70%
Asia9.77%0.00%
Europe3.99%0.00%
South America0.89%0.00%
Africa0.42%0.00%
Oceania0.22%0.00%
Other0.18%0.29%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials2.64%0.00%
Cons Cyclical12.25%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical4.37%0.00%
Energy4.75%0.00%
Financials10.24%0.00%
Healthcare10.44%0.00%
Industrial7.75%0.00%
Real Estate5.25%0.00%
Technology26.99%0.00%
Telecom Services7.20%0.00%
Utilities2.10%0.00%
Cash0.13%99.65%
Fund Cash0.39%0.06%
Unclassified5.49%0.29%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Q3 2020 – Quarterly Portfolio Review

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In this quarterly post, we review the composition and the performance of several investment portfolios managed by our Investment Advisor. Portfolios we review are actual live portfolios for several different clients and range from a conservative client who is already in retirement and looking for income to a very aggressive portfolio set up for young children with a 30-year investment horizon. The purpose of this post is to educate our investors and clients and help set expectations on how different portfolios perform over time. It also showcases how we think about and manage capital assets. We also show “Advisor View” which is an overview of the composition and performance of all portfolios under our management.

Quarterly Portfolio Review
In this quarterly post, we review the composition and the performance of several actual live investment portfolios managed by our Investment Advisor.

Advisors View

Advisors view includes all client accounts and all client allocated portfolios under our management. It’s a snapshot of the advisor dashboard we look at every day. 

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020YTD 2020
-12.42%10.51%1.91%0.42%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities49.32%4.22%
Fixed Income26.17%0.00%
Real Estate7.97%0.17%
Other Assets0.12%5.78%
Fund Cash16.21%85.76%

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America88.28%94.17%
Asia5.38%0.00%
Europe4.25%0.02%
South America0.82%0.00%
Africa0.51%0.00%
Oceania0.39%0.00%
Other0.37%5.81%

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials1.20%0.00%
Cons Cyclical4.91%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical2.37%0.00%
Energy3.68%0.00%
Financials8.52%3.70%
Healthcare6.71%0.24%
Industrial6.33%0.23%
Real Estate7.98%0.17%
Technology11.81%0.01%
Telecom Services2.70%0.00%
Utilities1.44%0.00%
Cash16.21%85.76%
Fund Cash0.21%4.08%
Unclassified25.92%5.81%

Retiree Portfolio

Portfolio and client situation summary:

  • The client is already in retirement (as of 1/1/2020)
  • The client needs 20 years (estimated) of income and capital preservation
  • The client will not contribute to the portfolio
  • Investment portfolio is in conservative allocation

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020YTD 2020
-4.29%3.63%1.51%1.41%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities19.91%50.49%
Fixed Income79.48%0.00%
Real Estate0.41%0.00%
Other Assets0.08%1.71%
Fund Cash0.06%2.70%

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America94.75%98.24%
Asia2.24%0.04%
Europe2.24%0.02%
South America0.60%0.00%
Africa0.39%0.00%
Oceania0.13%0.00%
Other0.09%1.71%

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials0.56%0.00%
Cons Cyclical2.04%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical3.82%0.00%
Energy1.45%0.00%
Financials2.67%0.00%
Healthcare2.72%0.00%
Industrial1.26%0.00%
Real Estate0.42%0.00%
Technology2.88%0.00%
Telecom Services1.21%0.00%
Utilities2.98%0.00%
Cash0.06%45.09%
Fund Cash0.06%2.70%
Unclassified77.87%1.71%

Retirement IRA Portfolio

Portfolio and client situation summary:

  • The client is currently working and is looking toward a 20/25-year time horizon before retirement (as of 1/1/2019)
  • The client will make an annual contribution based on annual maximums
  • Investment portfolio is in mid-to-aggressive allocation

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020YTD2020
-22.44%17.41%5.32%-2.25%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities73.66%0.58%
Fixed Income16.67%0.00%
Real Estate8.34%0.00%
Other Assets0.12%14.25%
Fund Cash0.50%85.16%

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America79.26%84.98%
Asia9.64%0.03%
Europe7.19%0.16%
South America1.39%0.00%
Africa1.08%0.00%
Oceania0.61%0.00%
Other0.82%14.48%

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials2.60%0.00%
Cons Cyclical9.16%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical3.64%0.00%
Energy5.61%0.00%
Financials14.17%0.00%
Healthcare8.04%0.00%
Industrial6.98%0.00%
Real Estate8.44%0.00%
Technology17.38%0.00%
Telecom Services4.89%0.00%
Utilities2.42%0.00%
Cash0.63%0.00%
Fund Cash0.46%85.16%
Unclassified15.55%14.84%

Trust Brokerage Account for Children

Portfolio and client situation summary:

  • The revocable trust is created with a 30-year time horizon (as of 1/1/2019)
  • The trustee will make modest but continuous monthly contribution
  • Investment portfolios is in aggressive allocation
  • Investment portfolio uses margin
  • ** Portfolio was 50% margined in late February 2020
Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020YTD 2020
-38.30%44.55%11.76%3.52%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities94.02%0.01%
Fixed Income0.05%0.00%
Real Estate5.26%0.00%
Other Assets0.14%0.28%
Fund Cash0.13%99.65%

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America84.52%99.70%
Asia9.77%0.00%
Europe3.99%0.00%
South America0.89%0.00%
Africa0.42%0.00%
Oceania0.22%0.00%
Other0.18%0.29%

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials2.64%0.00%
Cons Cyclical12.25%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical4.37%0.00%
Energy4.75%0.00%
Financials10.24%0.00%
Healthcare10.44%0.00%
Industrial7.75%0.00%
Real Estate5.25%0.00%
Technology26.99%0.00%
Telecom Services7.20%0.00%
Utilities2.10%0.00%
Cash0.13%99.65%
Fund Cash0.39%0.06%
Unclassified5.49%0.29%

Q2 2020 – Quarterly Portfolio Review

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Overview

In this quarterly post, we review the composition and the performance of several investment portfolios managed by our Investment Advisor. Portfolios we review are actual live portfolios for several different clients and range from a conservative client who is already in retirement and looking for income to a very aggressive portfolio set up for young children with a 30-year investment horizon. The purpose of this post is to educate our investors and clients and help set expectations on how different portfolios perform over time. It also showcases how we think about and manage capital assets. We also show “Advisor View” which is an overview of the composition and performance of all portfolios under our management.

Advisors View

Advisors view includes all accounts and all allocated portfolios under our management. Its snapshot of the advisor dashboard we look at every day. 

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020
-12.42%10.51%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities49.32%4.22%
Fixed Income26.17%0.00%
Real Estate7.97%0.17%
Other Assets0.12%5.78%
Fund Cash16.21%85.76%

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America88.28%94.17%
Asia5.38%0.00%
Europe4.25%0.02%
South America0.82%0.00%
Africa0.51%0.00%
Oceania0.39%0.00%
Other0.37%5.81%

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials1.20%0.00%
Cons Cyclical4.91%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical2.37%0.00%
Energy3.68%0.00%
Financials8.52%3.70%
Healthcare6.71%0.24%
Industrial6.33%0.23%
Real Estate7.98%0.17%
Technology11.81%0.01%
Telecom Services2.70%0.00%
Utilities1.44%0.00%
Cash16.21%85.76%
Fund Cash0.21%4.08%
Unclassified25.92%5.81%

Retiree Portfolio

  • The client is already in retirement (as of 1/1/2020)
  • The client needs 20 years (estimated) of income and capital preservation
  • The client will not contribute to the portfolio
  • Investment portfolio is in conservative allocation

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020
-4.29%3.63%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities19.91%50.49%
Fixed Income79.48%0.00%
Real Estate0.41%0.00%
Other Assets0.08%1.71%
Fund Cash0.06%2.70%

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America94.75%98.24%
Asia2.24%0.04%
Europe2.24%0.02%
South America0.60%0.00%
Africa0.39%0.00%
Oceania0.13%0.00%
Other0.09%1.71%

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials0.56%0.00%
Cons Cyclical2.04%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical3.82%0.00%
Energy1.45%0.00%
Financials2.67%0.00%
Healthcare2.72%0.00%
Industrial1.26%0.00%
Real Estate0.42%0.00%
Technology2.88%0.00%
Telecom Services1.21%0.00%
Utilities2.98%0.00%
Cash0.06%45.09%
Fund Cash0.06%2.70%
Unclassified77.87%1.71%

Retirement IRA Portfolio

  • The client is currently working and is looking toward a 20/25-year time horizon before retirement (as of 1/1/2019)
  • The client will make an annual contribution based on annual maximums
  • Investment portfolio is in mid-to-aggressive allocation

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020
-22.44%17.41%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities73.66%0.58%
Fixed Income16.67%0.00%
Real Estate8.34%0.00%
Other Assets0.12%14.25%
Fund Cash0.50%85.16%

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America79.26%84.98%
Asia9.64%0.03%
Europe7.19%0.16%
South America1.39%0.00%
Africa1.08%0.00%
Oceania0.61%0.00%
Other0.82%14.48%

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials2.60%0.00%
Cons Cyclical9.16%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical3.64%0.00%
Energy5.61%0.00%
Financials14.17%0.00%
Healthcare8.04%0.00%
Industrial6.98%0.00%
Real Estate8.44%0.00%
Technology17.38%0.00%
Telecom Services4.89%0.00%
Utilities2.42%0.00%
Cash0.63%0.00%
Fund Cash0.46%85.16%
Unclassified15.55%14.84%

Trust Brokerage Account for Children

  • The revocable trust is created with a 30-year time horizon (as of 1/1/2019)
  • The trustee will make modest but continuous monthly contribution
  • Investment portfolios is in aggressive allocation
  • Investment portfolio uses margin
  • ** Portfolio was 50% margined in late February 2020
Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q42020
-38.30%44.55%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities94.02%0.01%
Fixed Income0.05%0.00%
Real Estate5.26%0.00%
Other Assets0.14%0.28%
Fund Cash0.13%99.65%

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America84.52%99.70%
Asia9.77%0.00%
Europe3.99%0.00%
South America0.89%0.00%
Africa0.42%0.00%
Oceania0.22%0.00%
Other0.18%0.29%

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials2.64%0.00%
Cons Cyclical12.25%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical4.37%0.00%
Energy4.75%0.00%
Financials10.24%0.00%
Healthcare10.44%0.00%
Industrial7.75%0.00%
Real Estate5.25%0.00%
Technology26.99%0.00%
Telecom Services7.20%0.00%
Utilities2.10%0.00%
Cash0.13%99.65%
Fund Cash0.39%0.06%
Unclassified5.49%0.29%

May 2020 Market(s) Insights: Sample Portfolios

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In this May 2020 monthly edition of Market(s) Insights analysis videos, our Portfolio Manager reviews the sample portfolios we are tracking. Portfolio performance and asset allocations are reviewed. It’s a second in three videos covering economic indicators, performance of sample portfolios, and stock market activity.

May 2020 Market(s) Insights: Sample Portfolios