Independent Investment Advisors

Independent, Fiduciary & Fee-Only Advisor

You are here: Home / Archives for Portfolio & Market Reviews

Monthly Market(s) Insight Video - Archive

The Financial Quarterly Q4 2021

· ·

< back to Market Insights Blog

The Financial Quarterly

The Financial Quarterly

4th Quarter 2021

Goran Ognjenovic
https://independentadvisorsnw.com
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068

Markets delivered exceptional performance in a year that had a little bit of everything: politics, bubbles, meme stocks, inflation, runaway rallies, and sudden drops. Let's take a look at how markets performed last year and what we might look forward to in the first months of 2022.

Looking Back

How Did Markets Perform Last Year?

S&P 500

The broader U.S. market soared in 2021, despite worries about inflation and variants.1

NASDAQ

The tech-focused NASDAQ delivered a strong year on a new technology boom.1

DOW 30

Blue chip stocks grew strongly in 2021 on solid corporate earnings.1

Looking Ahead

What Can We Expect 3-9 Months Ahead?3

U.S. Economic Outlook

Negative Positive

The U.S. economy is positioned for continued growth in 2022, but the pace of the recovery may slow as the easy gains are likely behind us.2

Equity Outlook

Negative Positive

Stocks look to still have room to grow this quarter, but obstacles could lead to plenty of volatility and potentially even a correction.3

Consumer Spending

Negative Positive

Consumer spending looks positive as Americans look to keep shopping in 2022.4

Labor Market

Negative Positive

The labor market is expected to remain strong, though labor shortages in certain sectors could lead to uneven growth.5

Business Outlook Survey

Negative Positive

The business environment looks solid as workers return and consumers spend, though inflation and supply chain issues may weigh.6

Fiscal Policy

Negative Positive

Fiscal policy is expected to tighten in 2022 as pandemic supports are removed, though infrastructure spending may support medium-term growth.7

"While pandemic disruptions remain, 2022 offers hopes of greater normalcy."

Bottom Line

Key Takeaways for Savvy Investors

Despite another year of uncertainty around COVID-19 variants, vaccines, and the economy, markets delivered an extraordinary performance in 2021. Looking back, while it's easy to cheer a strong year, let's not forget that there were many dips, pullbacks, and anxious moments along the way.

That's just part of the journey.

What can we look forward to in 2022?

Signs point to continued growth amid hope that variants will become less dangerous as treatments advance and humans (and our institutions) adapt.

However, much of the "easy" recovery from the pandemic bottom is behind us and inflation, supply chain snarls, and labor market shortages remain thorny issues.

Given the market highs we’ve seen recently, volatility and pullbacks are very likely.

Overall, I'm cautiously optimistic about this quarter’s trajectory. However, I'm also keeping a close eye on market conditions, as continued uncertainty could drive sudden changes.

Questions? Please reach out. I'd be happy to chat.

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
info@independentadvisorsnw.com

The Financial Quarterly Q3 2021

· ·

< back to Market Insights Blog

The Financial Quarterly

The Financial Quarterly

3rd Quarter 2021

Goran Ognjenovic
https://independentadvisorsnw.com
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068

Despite breaking multiple records, a rocky third quarter ended with a thud as concerns about inflation, political brawls, and viral variants weighed.1

Let's take a look at how markets performed and what we might look forward to in the months to come.

Looking Back

How Did Markets Perform Last Quarter?

S&P 500

The broader U.S. market ended Q3 flat.2

NASDAQ

The tech-focused NASDAQ was rocked by volatility, but closed Q3 only slightly down.2

DOW 30

Blue chip stocks also fell victim to fears of higher interest rates ahead, ending Q3 negative.2

Looking Ahead

What Can We Expect 3-9 Months Ahead?3

U.S. Economic Outlook

Negative Positive

The U.S. economy continues to recover though the delta variant may weigh on near-term growth.4

Equity Outlook

Negative Positive

Though equities could still have room to grow in the months ahead, a correction would not be surprising.5

Consumer Sentiment

Negative Positive

Consumer sentiment remains positive, but concerns about a slowing recovery could weigh.6

Labor Market

Negative Positive

The labor market continues to grow, though challenges matching open jobs with available workers remain.4

Business Outlook Survey

Negative Positive

The overall business outlook looks positive heading into the close of the year, though supply chain woes may continue.4

Fiscal Policy

Negative Positive

Though prospective government policies look to support near-term economic growth, some have concerns about long-term debt.4

"As we head toward the finish line, we see some clouds on the horizon; however, we still hope for a solid end to the year."

Bottom Line

Key Takeaways for Savvy Investors

2021 opened with great optimism and hope that vaccines would put the pandemic in the rearview mirror.

The year so far had a lot of highlights: the U.S. economy roared back from its 2020 recession, personal incomes hit a high mark, home values increased, and U.S. companies enjoyed record profitability.7,8,9,10

All that optimism has led to record-breaking stock performance (50+ all-time-highs in 2021), causing the S&P 500 to double in less than a year.11,12

But, the clouds on the horizon could lead to more choppy seas. Maybe even a storm.

There are a few things I’m watching as we head toward the close of 2021:

  • New COVID-19 variants
  • Higher inflation
  • Fed tapering
  • Political and geopolitical concerns
  • Economic growth
  • The rising debt burden

Since markets are cyclical, the good times are bound to end, and now is a good time to be cautious.

The flipside is that rocky times don’t last forever either.

Bottom line, I'm keeping a close eye on conditions and staying flexible.

Questions about what’s going on? Please reach out. I'd be happy to chat.

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
info@independentadvisorsnw.com

The Financial Quarterly Q2 2021

· ·

< back to Market Insights Blog

The Financial Quarterly

The Financial Quarterly

2nd Quarter 2021

Goran Ognjenovic
https://independentadvisorsnw.com
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068

The second quarter of 2021 had a little bit of everything: vaccines, inflation concerns, jobs recovery, and more. Let's take a look at how markets performed and what we might look forward to in the months to come.

Looking Back

How Did Markets Perform Last Quarter?

S&P 500

Despite considerable volatility, the broader U.S. market grew strongly in Q2.1

NASDAQ

The tech-focused NASDAQ soared on the back of a sustained tech rally after pulling back in mid-quarter.1

DOW 30

Blue chip stocks delivered solid growth despite ongoing inflation and interest rate fears.1

Looking Ahead

What Can We Expect Three to Nine Months Ahead?

U.S. Economic Outlook

Negative Positive

The U.S. economy looks to be on a clear path for growth as the recovery continues.2

Equity Outlook

Negative Positive

Market fundamentals could support continued growth though volatility is very likely.3

Consumer Sentiment

Negative Positive

Consumer sentiment is very strong as Americans look forward to a post-pandemic world with ample cash in their pockets.4,5

Labor Market

Negative Positive

The labor market shows strength, though some sectors and regions may struggle to match workers with roles.6

Business Outlook Survey

Negative Positive

The business outlook looks solid as demand picks up, though inflation and supply chain issues may be obstacles.5

Fiscal Policy

Negative Positive

Government policies could support further growth, though waning stimulus spending and debt concerns may cause bumps.5

"Despite fears of runaway inflation and pandemic-related challenges, markets delivered a strong performance in Q2. While obstacles to growth remain, we expect the economic recovery to continue this quarter."

Bottom Line

Key Takeaways for Savvy Investors

Despite a lot of uncertainty around business reopenings, vaccination rates, and economic growth, equities delivered a solid performance in the second quarter, closing out the strongest first half since 2019.7

While the quarter closed strong, a number of dips, rallies, and ongoing volatility made it a bumpy road. We can expect more of this as the world continues to recover from the pandemic.

With all the uncertainty, it would not be surprising to see a market correction or pullback in the months ahead.

Overall, the economy seems positioned for strong growth in the second half of the year, though inflation worries, politics, and post-pandemic concerns may weigh.

Bottom line, I'm keeping a close eye on market conditions, as continued uncertainty could drive sudden changes.

Questions? Please reach out. I'd be happy to chat.

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
info@independentadvisorsnw.com

The Financial Quarterly Q1 2021

· ·

< back to Market Insights Blog

The Financial Quarterly

The Financial Quarterly

1st Quarter 2021

Goran Ognjenovic
https://independentadvisorsnw.com
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068

The first quarter of 2021 had a little bit of everything: politics, bubbles, meme stocks, rallies, and sudden drops. Let's take a look at how markets performed and what we might look forward to in the months to come.

Looking Back

How Did Markets Perform Last Quarter?

S&P 500

The broader U.S. market grew in Q1 on stimulus, optimism, and the economic recovery.1

NASDAQ

The tech-focused NASDAQ rallied on a new technology boom, but pulled back at quarter's end on interest rate fears.2

DOW 30

Blue chip stocks soared in Q1 on expectations of economic growth and stimulus.3

Looking Ahead

What Can We Expect in the Months Ahead?

U.S. Economic Outlook

Negative Positive

Equity Outlook

Negative Positive

Consumer Sentiment

Negative Positive

Labor Market

Negative Positive

Business Outlook

Negative Positive

Fiscal Policy

Negative Positive
"Despite continued challenges, markets had a strong performance in Q1. While uncertainty remains, we expect continued economic growth this quarter."

Bottom Line

Key Takeaways for Savvy Investors

Despite a lot of uncertainty around business reopenings, vaccination rates, and economic growth, equities delivered a solid performance last quarter. Looking back, while it's easy to focus on the quarter's overall performance, let's not forget that there were many dips and rallies along the way.

Bottom line, we can expect more volatility and uncertainty this year. After nearing record highs, it would not be surprising to see a market drop in the second quarter.

What lies ahead? A popular survey of economists suggests that the economy could grow ~7% this quarter as the economy continues to pick up steam.4 However, there are many variables and uncertainties baked into those projections: vaccination timelines, consumer spending, new government regulations, and business expectations.

Overall, I'm cautiously optimistic about where the economy and markets will go this quarter. However, I'm also keeping a close eye on market conditions, as continued uncertainty could drive sudden changes.

Questions? Please reach out. I'd be happy to chat.

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
info@independentadvisorsnw.com

Q4 2020 – Quarterly Portfolio Review

· ·

This quarterly post reviews the composition and performance of several investment portfolios managed by our Investment Advisor. Portfolios we review are actual live portfolios for several clients and range from a conservative client who is already in retirement and looking for income to a very aggressive portfolio set up for young children with a 30-year investment horizon. The purpose of this post is to educate our investors and clients and help set expectations on how different portfolios perform over time. It also showcases how we think about and manage capital assets. We also show “Advisor View,” which is an overview of all portfolios’ composition and performance under our management.

Quarterly Portfolio Review
In this quarterly post, we review the composition and the performance of several actual live investment portfolios managed by our Investment Advisor.

Advisors View

Advisors view includes all client accounts, and all client allocated portfolios under our management. It’s a snapshot of the advisor dashboard we look at every day. 

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020FY 2020
-12.42%10.51%1.91%11.92%10.42%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities54.21%0.74%
Fixed Income8.39%0.00%
Real Estate8.61%0.00%
Other Assets0.07%9.29%
Fund Cash28.59%5.66%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America88.01%90.68%
Asia5.57%0.00%
Europe4.39%0.02%
South America0.79%0.00%
Africa0.49%0.00%
Oceania0.41%0.00%
Other0.34%9.32%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials1.46%0.00%
Cons Cyclical6.22%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical2.74%0.00%
Energy4.25%0.00%
Financials17.33%3.70%
Healthcare7.62%0.24%
Industrial5.02%0.23%
Real Estate7.98%0.17%
Technology13.58%0.01%
Telecom Services3.12%0.00%
Utilities1.50%0.00%
Cash28.59%84.31%
Fund Cash0.10%5.66%
Unclassified8.47%9.32%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Retiree Portfolio

Portfolio and client situation summary:

  • The client is already in retirement (as of 1/1/2020)
  • The client needs 20 years (estimated) of income and capital preservation
  • The client will not contribute to the portfolio
  • The investment portfolio is in conservative allocation

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020FY 2020
-4.29%3.63%1.51%4.02%4.72%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities23.33%0.00%
Fixed Income11.46%0.00%
Real Estate0.43%0.00%
Other Assets0.09%47.22%
Fund Cash0.06%52.78%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America94.22%52.78%
Asia1.83%0.00%
Europe2.61%0.00%
South America0.60%0.00%
Africa0.39%0.00%
Oceania0.16%0.00%
Other0.20%47.22%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials0.89%0.00%
Cons Cyclical2.34%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical4.20%0.00%
Energy1.78%0.00%
Financials3.52%0.00%
Healthcare3.73%0.00%
Industrial1.61%0.00%
Real Estate0.42%0.00%
Technology3.19%0.00%
Telecom Services1.30%0.00%
Utilities3.16%0.00%
Cash64.46%0.00%
Fund Cash0.06%52.78%
Unclassified9.76%47.22%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Retirement IRA Portfolio

Portfolio and client situation summary:

  • The client is currently working and is looking toward a 20/25-year time horizon before retirement (as of 1/1/2019)
  • The client will make an annual contribution based on annual maximums
  • The investment portfolio is in mid-to-aggressive allocation

Investment Performance

Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020FY 2020
-22.44%17.41%5.32%14.39%9.71%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities75.04%0.37%
Fixed Income14.05%0.00%
Real Estate7.90%0.00%
Other Assets0.06%22.50%
Fund Cash2.68%77.13%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America79.89%77.12%
Asia9.65%0.00%
Europe6.85%0.01%
South America1.31%0.00%
Africa0.97%0.00%
Oceania0.57%0.00%
Other0.82%22.87%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials2.60%0.00%
Cons Cyclical9.16%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical3.64%0.00%
Energy5.61%0.00%
Financials14.17%0.00%
Healthcare8.04%0.00%
Industrial6.98%0.00%
Real Estate8.44%0.00%
Technology17.38%0.00%
Telecom Services4.89%0.00%
Utilities2.42%0.00%
Cash0.63%0.00%
Fund Cash0.46%85.16%
Unclassified15.55%14.84%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Trust Brokerage Account for Children

Portfolio and client situation summary:

  • The revocable trust is created with a 30-year time horizon (as of 1/1/2019)
  • The trustee will make a modest but continuous monthly contribution
  • Investment portfolios is in aggressive allocation
  • Investment portfolio uses margin
  • ** Portfolio was 50% margined in late February 2020
Q1 2020Q2 2020Q3 2020Q4 2020FY 2020
-38.30%44.55%11.76%28.78%28.35%

Asset Class Allocation

LongShort
Equities94.02%0.01%
Fixed Income0.05%0.00%
Real Estate5.26%0.00%
Other Assets0.14%0.28%
Fund Cash0.13%99.65%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Geographic Allocation

LongShort
North America84.52%99.70%
Asia9.77%0.00%
Europe3.99%0.00%
South America0.89%0.00%
Africa0.42%0.00%
Oceania0.22%0.00%
Other0.18%0.29%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.

Sector Allocation

LongShort
Basic Materials2.64%0.00%
Cons Cyclical12.25%0.00%
Cons Non-Cyclical4.37%0.00%
Energy4.75%0.00%
Financials10.24%0.00%
Healthcare10.44%0.00%
Industrial7.75%0.00%
Real Estate5.25%0.00%
Technology26.99%0.00%
Telecom Services7.20%0.00%
Utilities2.10%0.00%
Cash0.13%99.65%
Fund Cash0.39%0.06%
Unclassified5.49%0.29%
Portfolio asset allocation is a snapshot in time taken at the posting date of this update.