Financial Planning - Archive

$50 burgers (should we worry about inflation?)

Investment Advisor · May 31, 2021 ·

$50 burgers (should we worry about inflation?)

How much inflation can the country afford before we’re in trouble?

Let’s discuss.

First, let’s get on the same page about some basics.

If you’ve noticed the price of a thing increasing over time (say, your favorite candy bar or the cost of college tuition), that’s inflation in action.

Economists use the broad increase (or decrease) in prices of goods and services across the country as a measure of economic health.

When inflation is stable and predictable, it’s a sign of a basically healthy, growing economy.

But, high inflation can quickly eat away at the purchasing power of your dollars, indicating that the economy might be overheated.

Deflation, or a decline in prices, can be a warning sign of a shrinking economy.

Recent data highlighted a surprise spike in inflation, indicating that prices increased faster than economists expected last month.¹

Could this be a worrisome sign that the economy is overheated? Could $50 burgers be in our future?

Maybe.

On the other hand, could it be a temporary blip caused by the economy emerging from the pandemic-driven slowdown, complicated by supply chain issues?

Very possible.

Are the headlines catastrophizing?

They usually are.

Let’s look at the data.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the major indexes economists use to track inflation, showed a surprising spike in April, igniting fears of runaway inflation.

Core CPI (which excludes the highly volatile categories of energy and food) showed a 0.9% increase in April month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year. That’s much higher than the expected 0.3% and 2.3%, respectively.¹

However, digging a bit deeper, we see that just two categories of goods (used cars and transportation services) accounted for the vast majority of the surge.²

$50 burgers (should we worry about inflation?)

That suggests things like flights and train travel suddenly became more expensive after a year of rock-bottom prices.

Is that runaway inflation or the normalization of prices as the world reopens?

We can’t tell from a single data point, but it’s not unusual to see prices increase in sectors that experienced a severe slowdown last year.

And the jump in used car prices? Well, many folks are turning to the second-hand market right now, in part because new cars are caught up in global supply chain bottlenecks for things like semiconductors and raw materials.³

Inflation is something to keep an eye on, especially in a year when so many of the usual variables have been thrown into flux. An ongoing surge in prices could hurt our wallets as our dollars buy less over time.

However, a single monthly spike following a very weird period for the economy is not cause for alarm yet; we should prepare ourselves for more odd numbers coming out of different parts of the economy in the weeks and months to come.

Shortages of everything from ketchup to gasoline could lead to price increases and fluctuations as supply chains attempt to disentangle from pandemic disruptions.⁴

Should we expect markets to react to inflation (and other) headlines?

A negative market reaction is not surprising after weeks of strong performance. We should expect volatility ahead as we (and the economy) adjust to a post-pandemic world.

Bottom line: Expect the unexpected in 2021.

Yours in an odd year,

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
www.independentadvisorsnw.com

P.S. Questions about how inflation might affect your income? Hit “reply” and ask away. I’m here.

¹https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/consumer-price-index-april-2021.html

²https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/top-market-takeaway-05142021

³https://www.npr.org/2021/04/09/985860442/auto-industry-continues-to-struggle-with-supply-chain-issues

⁴https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/08/business/supply-chain-shortages-pandemic/index.html

Chart source: https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/top-market-takeaway-05142021

The following posts and commentary are to be used solely as educational tools and do not contain investment advice. Investment advice must be tailored to a particular investor’s specific needs. None of the information contained should be construed to be investment advice. Individuals wishing to tailor a plan to their own needs should seek the help of a Registered Investment Advisor.

There is a high degree of risk in investing and trading. Independent Investment Advisors assumes no responsibility. Principles of Independent Investment Advisors may, at times, maintain directly or indirectly, positions in securities or derivatives mentioned in these comments.

How Are You Lying to Yourself About Money?

Financial Planner · May 11, 2021 ·

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Do you think you are telling yourself the truth about money?

Read the full web text here.

We may think we know the facts about our finances. But our beliefs can often overshadow the facts.

Our wishes, hopes, and fears can tip the scales away from the truth. This makes it easier for us to believe what we want to about money — and it can happen without us even realizing it.1

The money lies we tell ourselves can change the way we think and act when it comes to finances.2

And since most of us rarely talk about money with our friends and family, the money lies we tell ourselves stick around. That can lock us into destructive beliefs and reinforce poor financial habits.

But no matter what money lies we tell ourselves, it is never too late to set the record straight.

Let us look at some of the most common money lies we all buy into at some point — and the truth behind them.

What Money Lies are You Buying into?

I’LL BE HAPPIER WHEN I HAVE $_____.

“With $___ (whatever amount you think is ideal), many of my problems would go away, and I’d be happier.”

Does this sound familiar?

Goals and target numbers for earnings, savings, and budgets are great. But if you make the mistake of thinking some magic number will flip a happiness switch for you, think again.

When we tell ourselves this money lie, we put too much emotion into a single number. And we may be setting ourselves up for disappointment — both if we never get $__, and if we do get $__ and realize it does not make us as happy as we thought it should.

The good news? Studies show that making progress toward our goals can be incredibly satisfying, regardless of whether we hit the target.3

2. I DESERVE IT, REGARDLESS OF WHETHER I CAN AFFORD IT.

“I work hard, and I don’t treat myself often.”

“I could kick the bucket tomorrow (YOLO).”

“I’m getting a great deal!”

These are just some of the rationalizations we use to convince ourselves that it is OK to buy something.

Whatever legs this money lie stands on, it is usually used to soothe the sting of expensive purchases — those that are not really essential — and perhaps items we know, deep down, we don’t really need.

3. I HAVE STRONG FINANCIAL WILLPOWER.

When faced with temptation, most of us lie to ourselves that we are great at resisting it. But when was the last time you chose not to buy something you really wanted? When was the last time you made an impulse buy?

The average American spends at least a couple of hundred dollars a month on impulse purchases.4

And we’re more likely to buy on impulse, and spend more, when we’re stressed or we’re looking for a new experience.5 That’s probably why impulse spending shot up about 18% in 2020.4

Plus, the 374 million of us who are shopping with credit cards are probably spending more on the regular than we realize.6 The average credit card shopper spends about 10% more with their cards than they would with cash.7 And that is not even counting the cost of interest if the balance isn’t paid in full.

4. I’LL SAVE MORE LATER.

Most folks focus on buying what we need and want now, and we tell ourselves we will start saving for the future later. If we save anything at all, it’s likely to be whatever we have left over.8

In fact, fewer than 1 in 6 of us are saving more than 15% of our income, and 1 in 5 are not saving any money.8

No matter the reason, when we tell ourselves this money lie and put off saving, we are prioritizing the present over the future.

That can catch up with us on a “rainy day” or whenever we do start thinking seriously about retiring. By that time, there can be a lot of heavy lifting to play “catch up” with our savings — or it may even be too late.

5. I HAVE PLENTY OF TIME TO PLAN FOR MY FINANCIAL FUTURE (& I DON’T NEED TO THINK ABOUT IT YET).

The future can seem far away when we are looking 10, 20, or even more years out. When we feel like we have a lot of room between now and then, it is easy to make excuses to not plan or save for it.

This money lie is an excuse for procrastination.9

It is the rationale we use when we have a hard time managing our negative feelings or uncertainties about our financial futures. And it makes us turn a blind eye to the years of interest that we lose out on when we do not plan.

Benjamin Franklin may have spoken best about the truth behind this money lie when he wisely said, “by failing to prepare, you are preparing to fail.”

6. THERE IS GOOD & BAD DEBT.

We tend to assign moral value to debt, thinking of mortgages and student loans as “good” debt, and considering credit card debt as “bad.”

This money lie gets us to think the wrong way about debt. All debt comes with some cost and it is critical to understand how every loan affects our current and future selves.

Instead of focusing on whether debt is “good” or “bad,” concentrate on the total cost of the interest over time (it is often higher than you think) and on deciding whether the loan is really helping you achieve your goals.

About half of us seem to already be on track with that thinking, saying that we expect to be out of debt within 1 to 5 years.10

7. WANTING MORE IS BAD.

While I think we can all agree that obsessive greed is wrong, it is not a bad thing to want more for you and your loved ones.

When we tell ourselves, we should not want more than we have, we agree to settle for less. And we may be tricking ourselves into thinking it is OK that we are not doing something (or enough) to improve our financial situation.

This money lie holds us back and can make it hard to improve our financial behaviors.

When we frame wanting more as a positive motivator, it can be easier to take the chances or do the work needed to get to that next financial level we may want.

Financial Lesson:

How to Stop Losing Out to Costly Money Lies

How many of these money lies sound like something you have told yourself?

At some point, I think we have all tricked ourselves with at least one of them.

Maybe we were rationalizing a decision, or we were trying to make ourselves feel better about what we wanted to do with our money. And we probably did not make the best financial choices as a result.

Here is the truth.

Honesty goes a long way with finances.

What we tell ourselves, and what we believe, about money influences our financial behaviors. If we are not telling ourselves the truth, our money lies won’t just drain our wallets. They can affect our financial awareness and inflate our confidence. And they get in the way of maintaining or growing wealth.11

When we recognize the money lies that we believe, we can reset our thinking, change our mindset, and start taking action. And that sets us up to make better choices and make more progress toward our big financial goals.

SOURCES & DISCLOSURES

1 – https://www.apa.org/monitor/2017/05/alternative-facts

2 – https://www.psychologytoday.com/files/attachments/34772/money-beliefs-and-financial-behaviors-development-the-klontz-money-script-inventory-jft-2011.pdf

3 – https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/dont-delay/200806/goal-progress-and-happiness

4 – https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/americans-increased-impulse-spending-by-18-percent-during-the-covid-19-pandemic-according-to-new-survey-commissioned-by-slickdeals-301055530.html

5 – https://www.newneuromarketing.com/what-psychology-knows-about-impulse-buying-in-2020

6 – https://www.creditcards.com/credit-card-news/ownership-statistics/

7 – https://www.valuepenguin.com/credit-cards/credit-card-spending-studies

8 – https://www.cnbc.com/2019/03/14/heres-how-many-americans-are-not-saving-any-money-for-emergencies-or-retirement-at-all.html

9 – https://solvingprocrastination.com/why-people-procrastinate/

10 – https://www.statista.com/statistics/944961/personal-debt-duration-usa/

11 – https://www.pnas.org/content/108/Supplement_3/15655

Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.

HOW TO SPRING CLEAN FOR A BETTER FINANCIAL LIFE

Financial Planner · Mar 12, 2021 ·

Simple & Powerful Ways to Declutter Your Financial Life — Simple & Powerful Ways to De-clutter Your Financial Life

Clutter is a common annoyance, especially in a busy household. But did you know it sneaks up in your financial life as well? And that it can also cost you money?

“Financial clutter” is distracting, and it makes it hard to see the progress you’re making toward your financial goals. It can even hide problems until they become big and urgent. Clutter doesn’t appear out of nowhere. It grows over time, adding another layer of stress to our already busy lives. The solution is simple: Get rid of the clutter. While it may not sound glamorous, it doesn’t have to be tedious or painstaking.

But it does need to be done from time to time because clutter won’t go away by itself. And the results are well worth the effort. Getting started is easier than you might think. If you focus on a few key financial areas as part of your spring cleaning, a little bit of tidying up can go a long way toward eliminating clutter. It can also help you refocus and put you in a better frame of mind when it’s time to make important financial choices. Here’s where to begin…

7 Simple & Powerful Ways to De-clutter Your Financial Life

1.) Organize Your Documents & Accounts

Have piles of statements or documents piling up? Go through them and decide: Can I set up paperless statements or billing to reduce the clutter? Do I actually need to keep this? If so, back it up digitally and file it away. Shred everything else.

Next, review your accounts. Do you have bank, credit, or other accounts you haven’t used in months? If you’re paying fees for those, consider closing them (if doing so wouldn’t ding your credit score).

2.) Review Your Beneficiaries

We recommend reviewing your beneficiaries and estate documents regularly so that you can make sure the people, trusts, and institutions you have listed still represent your wishes. If you don’t already, we strongly recommend naming a second or contingent beneficiary or representative in case the primary is unable to step in or inherit assets.

3.) Update Your Subscriptions

Digital clutter can be just as stressful as physical clutter. And our inboxes are usually ground zero for the digital clutter we have to face daily. If your inbox is overflowing, identify any listserv, subscription, or promotional messages you haven’t opened in a couple of months and unsubscribe from them. (Tip: search for “unsubscribe” to identify promotional messages.) As you do this, organize and/or archive any emails you need to save. Also, take a look at your other subscriptions. Review the ones you have for software, magazines, memberships, or other items. Cancel the ones you don’t need or use.

4.) Go Over Your Insurance Policies

When’s the last time you reviewed your policies? Life, health, and disability policies often get regular attention, but your auto, homeowner’s, and other policies need review as well. For example, are you driving as much this year? If not, you might qualify for a better rate on your auto policy. Make some big purchases or upgrades? You’ll want to update your personal property inventory and maybe review your homeowner’s coverage.

5.) Reconsider Your Tax Withholding’s

Don’t let the wrong withholding give Uncle Sam a free loan or set you up for a surprise tax bill! Take a fresh look at your withholdings, and think about changes in your family, income, and/or assets over the past year. Also, consider any changes you may be planning in these areas this year. All of these can be good reasons to update your tax withholdings.

6.) Automate Your Savings

Haven’t reviewed your savings in a while? Now’s the time. When you have subscriptions that are auto-drafted, it’s easy to forget about them and spend more than you intended. On the flip side, automatic deposits into your savings make it easy to save more with less effort. Explore the options available from your financial institution. Transfers can be set aside from direct deposits or as recurring events at any frequency. You can even set up round-up deposits, so you are contributing to your savings with every purchase you make. As you consider the options, think about what you need to put away for future plans, upcoming tax bills, and the unexpected rainy days.

7.) Check in on Your Financial Goals

Financial spring cleaning isn’t just about removing clutter and setting up systems. It’s also about restoring clarity and reconnecting with the purpose of your financial life. Take some time to revisit and reflect on your financial goals and how they connect to your values. Are you still working toward the same dreams? Do you need to update them or add new ones? Be sure to celebrate your progress!

7.) Check in on Your Financial Goals

Financial Lesson:

When You Get Rid of the Clutter, You Make Space to Enrich Your Financial Life Few of us have our financial lives in perfect order. Even if we get close or we do achieve it, perfect order is never a finish line. It’s a moving target — because life isn’t static. That’s why we have to maintain our financial lives to sustain and enrich them. If we don’t, financial clutter can build up as quickly as the papers on our desks. It can cost us money, expose us to risk, and stall the progress we want to make toward our financial goals. Some simple spring cleaning can put an end to that. It provides an opportunity to examine key parts of our financial lives so we can tidy them up before they get messy. It also helps us avoid overwhelm by giving us a framework to check-in, reorganize, and make important adjustments to support our evolving needs and long-term objectives. This sets us up to be proactive and establish good financial habits. It also gives us new clarity and real control over the trajectory of our financial futures. And the power of financial spring cleaning isn’t limited to your personal finances. It can extend to businesses, philanthropy, relationships, and beyond.

What Should You Do With Your Old 401(k) or Employer Plan?

Financial Planner · Jan 28, 2021 ·

FREE Guide Reveals 5 Options for Old 401(k), 403(b), and some 457 Plans

What Should You Do With Your Old 401(k) or Employer Plan?

This FREE Guide will help you get crystal clear on which of these 5 options is right for you and the steps you should take next. Inside, you’ll discover:

The 5 options for handling your old employer plan (and what to do next)
The critical steps to avoid a surprise tax bill or accidentally making your account permanently taxable
The pros and cons of each strategy to help you make the right choice for you

“You have to make a critical decision… because if you make a mistake… you could inadvertently end up with a surprise tax bill and lose the power of tax-deferred growth… After you’re done reading this guide, you’ll decide which of these 5 strategies makes the most sense for your old retirement plan and how you can take the first steps that are right for you.”

What Should You Do With Your Old 401(k) or Employer Plan? — “You have to make a critical decision… because if you make a mistake… you could inadvertently end up with a surprise tax bill and lose the power of tax-deferred growth… After you’re done reading this guide, you’ll decide which of these 5 strategies makes the most sense for your old retirement plan and how you can take the first steps that are right for you.”

5 Powerful Ways to Set Authentic Financial Goals In Uncertain Times

Financial Planner · Jan 26, 2021 ·

What is your biggest obstacle to achieving your goals in 2021?

It’s not a lack of time or bad timing. It’s not age, ability, or finances. And it’s not even the coronavirus.

Believe it or not, research says it’s you.¹

In fact, most of us trip ourselves up when it comes to achieving our goals. That includes New Year’s resolutions.²

Even when we have the best intentions, we can get in the way of our own progress.

And that’s far more likely to happen during times of uncertainty.³

That’s when we tend to stagnate. We avoid long-term plans and push pause on our big goals. And we become paralyzed by uncertainty. Sometimes, that means we simply give up on setting goals entirely.⁴

And, yet, New Year’s goals help us.

They give us a sense of control and keep us grounded in unpredictable times. And they can help us cope with uncertainty and motivate us to keep trying to improve parts of our lives.⁵

So, how do you overcome uncertainty paralysis? How do you set goals when everything feels so up in the air?

With a handful of simple, powerful principles that can help you set the right goals and expectations.

If you can use these principles as you set and pursue your goals, you’ll be able to choose better goals that are within your power to achieve. You can also discover new paths to progress — even during the most chaotic times.

Click here to read more >