Financial Planning - Archive

Gratitude practice?

Financial Planner · Nov 15, 2021 ·

The last few weeks and months have had a lot of stress and uncertainty.

So, instead of writing to you about politics, or the economy, or the supply chain, I figured I’d change the script and write about something completely different.

Let’s talk about gratitude.

Is gratitude a practice for you?

In my role as a financial professional, I’ll tell you that it should be.

Why?

Let's talk about gratitude! — Gratitude reminds you of what really matters.

Gratitude reminds you of what really matters.

Not the lines at the store.

Not the traffic.

Not what happens on Capitol Hill or Wall Street.

But, what really, truly matters.

I am deeply, abundantly grateful today.

For the food in my fridge.

For the roof over my head.

For my health.

For my circle of family and friends who love me.

For my community that has given me a home.

For my amazing clients and partners who have given me a vocation.

I’m grateful for you.

Taking inventory of all my blessings gets me through the minor irritations.

It also helps me reset when something major happens.

Gratitude calms me when things get stressful and overwhelming.

What are you grateful for?

Has it changed over these crazy couple of years?

Do you have any rituals around gratitude?

Please write back and let me know. I’m excited to hear from you.

With gratitude,

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
www.independentadvisorsnw.com

P.S. Can I ask you to do something with me? Would you send an email or text to three people you are grateful for? I bet you’ll make their day. I wrote to you, so now I’ve just got two more :). Hit “reply” and share any responses you get.

P.P.S. Want some insight into the relationship between gratitude and happiness? Here’s a great TED talk on the topic by Benedictine monk David Steindl-Rast. If you watch it, will you send me your thoughts?

The following posts and commentary are to be used solely as educational tools and do not contain investment advice. Investment advice must be tailored to a particular investor’s specific needs. None of the information contained should be construed to be investment advice. Individuals wishing to tailor a plan to their own needs should seek the help of a Registered Investment Advisor.

There is a high degree of risk in investing and trading. Independent Investment Advisors assumes no responsibility. Principles of Independent Investment Advisors may, at times, maintain directly or indirectly, positions in securities or derivatives mentioned in these comments.

7 Little Upgrades that Can Make Life Better in Big Ways

Financial Planner · Aug 19, 2021 ·

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What would make your life better?

A new house or car? A bigger paycheck or bank account?

It’s easy to want more when you think of being happier and living better.¹

And there’s little doubt that money can buy some (more) happiness.²

But the happiness we get from money is fundamentally limited.³

It leaves us wanting more, and it’s not enough on its own to enjoy a truly satisfying life.

The reality is a lot of the things that can make us happy and enrich our lives have nothing to do with money.⁴

And some of the things that may bring us the most joy could already be within our reach.⁴

What are they and how can they improve our lives?

Find out the answer with these simple life upgrades. They can transform the way you experience and enjoy life.

Read Our August Newsletter Here!

Getting it wrong?

Investment Advisor · Jun 24, 2021 ·

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What happens when the predictions are wrong?

Is it time to panic?

Is it time to ditch our strategy?

It’s a fascinating question because it cuts right down to the question of what it means to live in an uncertain world.

Humans are wired to dislike uncertainty.¹

And we’re used to a fair amount of (often unwarranted) certainty in the models and paradigms we use to make sense of the world around us.

We’re so attracted to certainty that when economic forecasts and reports come back with “surprises” (also known as being wrong) we tend to freak out.

Especially when the news trumpets every weird bit of data like it’s a huge deal.

Over the last few weeks and months, we’ve had a lot of “surprise” reports.

Inflation surprises.

Job market surprises.

Housing market surprises.

Economic growth surprises.

Why are we so surprised?

In a year like 2021, the margin for error is greater than ever.

Predictions, forecasts, and expectations that are based on averages, trends, and other backward-looking methods are ill-equipped to handle the outliers and oddities of a year that’s unlike anything that has come before.

When in history has an entire global economy simply come to a halt?

And then arthritically restarted with many creaks and groans.

To my knowledge, it’s never happened before.

Of course the data is going to have surprises.

We’re probably going to get a lot of things wrong.

I can’t wait for the best-sellers written about all the ways we could have done things better.

So. What does that mean for you and me?

Crystal balls are out of commission.

Surprise is the order of the day, the week, and the year.

The models haven’t caught up yet (though that’s not stopping anyone from issuing very confident predictions).

So we’re being careful and looking out for the opportunities (as well as the hidden pitfalls) in these uncharted waters.

We’re cultivating patience, gratitude, and our ability to make good decisions with incomplete information.

To staying frosty,

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
www.independentadvisorsnw.com

P.S. So many folks are making big life changes. Are you? Anything you’re excited to share? Hit “reply” and let me know.

¹_{https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-right-mindset/202002/why-uncertainty-freaks-you-out}

Risk Disclosure: Investing involves risk including the potential loss of principal. No investment strategy can guarantee a profit or protect against loss in periods of declining values. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This material is for information purposes only and is not intended as an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any security. The content is developed from sources believed to be providing accurate information; no warranty, expressed or implied, is made regarding accuracy, adequacy, completeness, legality, reliability or usefulness of any information. Consult your financial professional before making any investment decision. For illustrative use only.

Tax worries? Info inside…

Investment Advisor · Jun 15, 2021 ·

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Tax worries? Info inside…

Are you tired of hearing about taxes?

Me too! But here we are. Let’s dive in.

So, we’ve got dueling infrastructure bills, plus a big proposed budget with lots of spending (and higher taxes inside).

That’s a lot of expensive legislation on the table.

What’s going to happen next?

The Democrats and Republicans seem pretty far apart on their respective infrastructure deals, which opens up the possibility that Democrats could go it alone and try to pass a package entirely without Republican support.¹

That would be very difficult to accomplish.

It’s also possible that both parties could align around a smaller bill and then the Democrats attempt to pass any extras through budget reconciliation.

Bottom line, we don’t have enough clarity to know what a final infrastructure deal will look like. Given the political hurdles, the debate might drag on through summer.²

How likely are taxes to go up?

Well, my crystal ball’s about as clear as mud right now, but let’s break down what we see on the table.

President Biden’s $6 trillion proposed budget offers a lot of spending and higher taxes to pay for it.³ None of these tax hikes are a surprise as they are in line with what Biden has promised before.

Wealthy taxpayers are looking at a higher top income tax rate, higher capital gains taxes, and the loss of the step-up basis on inherited assets.

Corporations are also in the line of fire, facing an increase in corporate tax rates, which could affect profitability.

That’s currently what’s on the table.

However, Biden’s desire to raise taxes faces major headwinds (even inside his own party). His proposed budget is very much a wish list and will face challenges getting approved by legislators.⁴

It’s very possible that some (or all) of these proposed tax hikes will get axed during negotiations.

How likely is it that any tax hikes will be retroactive?

One of the big shockers coming out of recent tax news is that the higher capital gains taxes could be made retroactive to April 2021.⁵

There is historical precedent for this as it has happened a number of times before.⁶ However, retroactive tax changes are often for tax decreases.

I think it’s very unlikely for an increase to be retroactive. There is too much opposition from both sides of the aisle.

Bottom line, I do think that higher taxes are coming. But I’m not sure that they will be as big or far-reaching as the Biden administration wants.

With so much uncertainty around taxes, now is not a time to panic, but to think carefully and make adjustments where needed.

I’ll reach out if there’s anything specific we need to discuss.

Yours in tax uncertainty,

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
www.independentadvisorsnw.com

P.S. There’s a lot going on in the economy and Washington. I’ll keep you updated along the way, but if you have any questions or concerns, please reach out. That’s why I’m here.

¹https://www.usatoday.com/in-depth/news/politics/2021/05/30/biden-infrastructure-plan-sides-odds-social-infrastructure/7451554002/

²https://www.rollcall.com/2021/05/28/budget-release-starts-a-process-that-will-run-through-summer/

³https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/28/biden-budget-reiterates-top-capital-gains-tax-rate.html

⁴ https://www.foxbusiness.com/politics/bidens-capital-gains-tax-hike-proposal-faces-democratic-headwinds

⁵ https://www.marketwatch.com/story/biden-plans-retroactive-hike-in-capital-gains-taxes-so-it-may-be-already-too-late-for-investors-to-avoid-it-report-11622133899

⁶ https://www.natlawreview.com/article/capital-gains-rate-historical-perspectives-retroactive-changes

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

$50 burgers (should we worry about inflation?)

Investment Advisor · May 31, 2021 ·

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$50 burgers (should we worry about inflation?)

How much inflation can the country afford before we’re in trouble?

Let’s discuss.

First, let’s get on the same page about some basics.

If you’ve noticed the price of a thing increasing over time (say, your favorite candy bar or the cost of college tuition), that’s inflation in action.

Economists use the broad increase (or decrease) in prices of goods and services across the country as a measure of economic health.

When inflation is stable and predictable, it’s a sign of a basically healthy, growing economy.

But, high inflation can quickly eat away at the purchasing power of your dollars, indicating that the economy might be overheated.

Deflation, or a decline in prices, can be a warning sign of a shrinking economy.

Recent data highlighted a surprise spike in inflation, indicating that prices increased faster than economists expected last month.¹

Could this be a worrisome sign that the economy is overheated? Could $50 burgers be in our future?

Maybe.

On the other hand, could it be a temporary blip caused by the economy emerging from the pandemic-driven slowdown, complicated by supply chain issues?

Very possible.

Are the headlines catastrophizing?

They usually are.

Let’s look at the data.

The Consumer Price Index (CPI), one of the major indexes economists use to track inflation, showed a surprising spike in April, igniting fears of runaway inflation.

Core CPI (which excludes the highly volatile categories of energy and food) showed a 0.9% increase in April month-over-month and 3.0% year-over-year. That’s much higher than the expected 0.3% and 2.3%, respectively.¹

However, digging a bit deeper, we see that just two categories of goods (used cars and transportation services) accounted for the vast majority of the surge.²

$50 burgers (should we worry about inflation?)

That suggests things like flights and train travel suddenly became more expensive after a year of rock-bottom prices.

Is that runaway inflation or the normalization of prices as the world reopens?

We can’t tell from a single data point, but it’s not unusual to see prices increase in sectors that experienced a severe slowdown last year.

And the jump in used car prices? Well, many folks are turning to the second-hand market right now, in part because new cars are caught up in global supply chain bottlenecks for things like semiconductors and raw materials.³

Inflation is something to keep an eye on, especially in a year when so many of the usual variables have been thrown into flux. An ongoing surge in prices could hurt our wallets as our dollars buy less over time.

However, a single monthly spike following a very weird period for the economy is not cause for alarm yet; we should prepare ourselves for more odd numbers coming out of different parts of the economy in the weeks and months to come.

Shortages of everything from ketchup to gasoline could lead to price increases and fluctuations as supply chains attempt to disentangle from pandemic disruptions.⁴

Should we expect markets to react to inflation (and other) headlines?

A negative market reaction is not surprising after weeks of strong performance. We should expect volatility ahead as we (and the economy) adjust to a post-pandemic world.

Bottom line: Expect the unexpected in 2021.

Yours in an odd year,

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
www.independentadvisorsnw.com

P.S. Questions about how inflation might affect your income? Hit “reply” and ask away. I’m here.

¹https://www.cnbc.com/2021/05/12/consumer-price-index-april-2021.html

²https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/top-market-takeaway-05142021

³https://www.npr.org/2021/04/09/985860442/auto-industry-continues-to-struggle-with-supply-chain-issues

⁴https://www.cnn.com/2021/05/08/business/supply-chain-shortages-pandemic/index.html

Chart source: https://www.chase.com/personal/investments/learning-and-insights/article/top-market-takeaway-05142021