Investment Advisor - Archive

Taper tantrum part deux?

Investment Advisor · Sep 2, 2021 ·

Could the Fed’s actions cause a correction or economic slowdown?

Let’s discuss.

First of all, what does ”tapering” mean?

In econ-speak, tapering means winding down the pace of the assets Fed has been buying since last summer.

Why is it a big deal?

Well, the last time the Fed tapered in 2013, during the recovery from the 2008 financial crisis, markets panicked and pitched a “taper tantrum.”²

That’s because traders worried that less Fed support would hurt fundamentals and potentially cause a market downturn.

Now, that old taper tantrum narrative is making folks worry that another market downturn could be ahead of us, especially with concerns about the delta variant.

Before we dive into what could happen, let’s talk about where we are and how we got here.

When the pandemic started, the Fed slashed interest rates and began buying $120 billion a month in bonds and mortgage-backed securities to reduce interest rates, lower borrowing costs, and give businesses and the economy a boost.¹

Could the Fed's actions cause a correction or economic slowdown?

However, now that the economy is much stronger, the employment situation has improved, and inflation is a concern, the Fed wants to start paring back those asset purchases to return interest rates to a more “natural” level.

What could that look like?

Obviously, we don’t know exactly when or how the Fed will decide to act, but analysts have some pretty good guesses.

The latest prediction by Bank of America suggests tapering could start this November as the Fed gradually pares back asset purchases through next year.¹

The takeaway is that the Fed isn’t going to stop buying assets and raise interest rates immediately.

It’s going to gradually remove the support and see how the economy reacts.

So, will we see another taper correction?

The main reason folks worry about Fed reducing support is because of the effect higher interest rates could have on stocks, particularly companies that rely on borrowed money.

However, interest rates are just one piece of the puzzle. Economic fundamentals, earnings, and other factors also weigh on stock prices.

With the benefit of hindsight, we can see that the 2013 taper tantrum wasn’t even that bad. The S&P 500 tumbled 5.8% over the course of a month but quickly recovered (the caveat here is always this: the past does not predict the future).²

I think the main reason markets declined last time was that investors hadn’t experienced tapering before; they didn’t have context for what the Fed would do.

Since we’ve seen this happen before fairly recently, I think that uncertainty is lessened.

However, we also have other worries to consider: a deteriorating crisis in Afghanistan, continued pandemic worries, and political wrangling over infrastructure.

Any of these factors could derail the bull market.

But it’s not going to be the end of the world.

Corrections are always something we should expect. They happen regularly and are a natural part of markets.

The Fed is one more thing I’m keeping an eye on, and I’ll reach out if there’s more you should know.

Be well,

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
www.independentadvisorsnw.com

P.S. What’s something new or exciting in your world? Do you mind sharing it with me?

¹ https://markets.businessinsider.com/news/bonds/fed-taper-asset-purchases-november-bonds-mbs-federal-reserve-economy-2021-8

² https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-taper-scare-what-comes-next-51629505091

The following posts and commentary are to be used solely as educational tools and do not contain investment advice. Investment advice must be tailored to a particular investor’s specific needs. None of the information contained should be construed to be investment advice. Individuals wishing to tailor a plan to their own needs should seek the help of a Registered Investment Advisor.

There is a high degree of risk in investing and trading. Independent Investment Advisors assumes no responsibility. Principles of Independent Investment Advisors may, at times, maintain directly or indirectly, positions in securities or derivatives mentioned in these comments.

We’ve come so far!

Investment Advisor · Aug 16, 2021 ·

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Headlines are looking grim again, so let’s pause and take stock.

Why are the headlines terrible?

Because the media loves drama. This is not news to you or me or anyone who pays attention. The 24-hour news cycle is there to whip up emotions and keep us glued to the latest “BREAKING NEWS.”

So, what’s behind the noise and should we worry?

Before we jump into unpacking the news, let’s take a moment and remind ourselves of how far we’ve come since the pandemic began.

You can see it right here in this chart:

Cumulative change in jobs during the pandemic

We’ve recovered the vast majority of jobs lost since the bottom of the pandemic’s disruption last April. The economy is still missing several million jobs to regain pre-pandemic levels, but we’ve made up a lot of ground, and jobs growth is still strong.¹

In fact, there are more job openings right now than job seekers to fill them.²

But there’s an important caveat to the chart above.

The monthly jobs report is what economists call a “lagging” indicator, meaning that it’s telling us where the economy was, not where it’s going.

To figure out what might lie ahead, economists turn to “leading” economic indicators that help forecast future trends.

So, what are the leading indicators telling us about the economy?

A couple of the most popular indicators are manufacturing orders for long-lasting (durable) goods, since companies don’t like to order expensive equipment unless they expect to need soon.

Another one is groundbreaking (starts) on new houses, which indicate how much demand builders expect for housing.

Let’s take a look:

Both indicators suggest continued (if bumpy) growth. Now, those are just two sectors, and we want to be thorough, so let’s take a look at a composite.

The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) gives us a quick overview each month of several indicators.

It increased by 0.7% in June, following a 1.2% increase in May, and a 1.3% increase in April, showing broad, but slowing growth.³

What does that tell us? That the economy still has legs.

Will the delta variant derail the recovery?

A serious slowdown due to the delta variant seems unlikely, but we could potentially see a bumpy fall, especially in vulnerable industries and areas with surging case counts.

There’s also some potentially good news about the delta variant that we can take from other countries.

India and Great Britain both experienced delta-driven surges earlier this summer.⁴

And what happened?

A steep and scary rise in case counts and hospitalizations…followed by a rapid decline.

It seems that these fast-moving delta waves might burn themselves out.

Unfortunately, these surges come with a painful human cost to patients, overburdened medical staff, communities, and families.

But, if this pattern holds true in the U.S., it doesn’t appear that the economic impact will be heavy enough to derail the recovery.

All this to say, it’s clear that the pandemic is still not over.

But we’ve come such a long way since the darkest days of 2020 and the road ahead still seems bright (if a little potholed).

Please remember to take panicky headlines with a shaker or two of salt.

I’m here and I’m keeping watch for you.

Have questions? Please reach out.

Be well,

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
www.independentadvisorsnw.com

P.S. The bipartisan infrastructure deal is still making its way through Congress, and we don’t yet know what the final details will look like. The Democrat-led infrastructure deal is also in the works, but we’re not likely to see serious movement until the fall. I’ll keep updating you as I know more.

1 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/06/jobs-report-july-.html

2 https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/07/there-are-about-1-million-more-job-openings-than-people-looking-for-work.html

3 https://conference-board.org/pdf_free/press/US%20LEI%20PRESS%20RELEASE%20-%20July%202021.pdf

4 https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-u-k-s-delta-surge-is-collapsing-will-ours.html

Is the sky falling (again)?

Investment Advisor · Jul 23, 2021 ·

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There’s a lot going on in the world right now.

I thought this note was going to be about the $3.5 trillion budget deal or what to do with any child tax credits that may be heading your way.

But then global markets jolted on fears of new viral variants.

Is the sky actually falling?

Could a big correction happen?

After hitting record highs in previous days, markets tumbled Monday, sending the Dow 700+ points lower.¹

Why?

Mostly fears of a COVID-19 resurgence caused by the delta variant that could derail the economic recovery.

Case numbers are rising globally, even in countries with high vaccination rates, and the surge could lead to a return to travel restrictions and business closures.²

Could these market jitters cause a 10%+ correction?

Absolutely.

Should we panic and freak out?

Definitely not.

Here are a couple of reasons why:

Summer months can bring higher volatility, perhaps because of lower trading volume, making bad news shake the market harder.³

We’ve had a pretty long winning streak, and corrections are part and parcel of a healthy market, especially when we’re near all-time highs.

New variants and higher case counts are a threat. However, vaccination rates are continuing to rise, and experts don’t think that we’ll see the devastating health outcomes we saw last year.⁴

Could the delta variant cause the economy to slow down?

It’s hard to say at this point. The rosy projections about the economy have been based on a swift return to normal from the shortest recession in history.⁵

If surging case counts cause a resumption of business and travel limits, we could definitely see a hit, especially in recovery-dependent industries like airlines, cruises, and hotels.

Supply chain issues are still causing materials shortages, creating delivery delays of goods, and potentially triggering slowdowns in industries such as building and construction.⁶

However, consumer spending is still very strong and the economy is in way better shape than it was last year.⁷

Bottom line: we could see some economic complications due to the delta variant and we’re likely to see more market volatility ahead, especially if economic data disappoints.

I’m keeping an eagle eye on the trends and will be in touch with you personally if your strategy needs to change.

Have questions? Please reach out. I’m always here to help.

Calmly,

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
www.independentadvisorsnw.com

P.S. A massive $3.5 trillion budget deal is working its way through Congress.⁸ It’s got a lot of moving parts that may affect taxes, Medicare, and much more. I’ll reach out when we know more about how it’s likely to shake out.

¹https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/18/stock-market-futures-open-to-close-news.html

²https://www.reuters.com/business/healthcare-pharmaceuticals/delta-covid-variant-now-dominant-worldwide-drives-surge-us-deaths-officials-2021-07-16/

³https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/volatility-gauge-suggests-tactical-trading-during-summer-doldrums-2021-07-19

⁴https://www.nature.com/articles/d41586-021-01696-3

⁵https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/19/its-official-the-covid-recession-lasted-just-two-months-the-shortest-in-us-history.html

⁶https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2021/07/20/biden-delta-coronavirus-economy/

⁷https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/us-retail-sales-unexpectedly-rise-june-2021-07-16/

⁸https://www.cnbc.com/2021/07/14/democrats-3point5-trillion-budget-package-funds-family-programs-clean-energy-medicare-expansion.html

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific tax issues with a qualified tax professional.

A tale of two infrastructure deals

Investment Advisor · Jul 2, 2021 ·

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It appears we have a deal on infrastructure.

Maybe.

After weeks of grandstanding, posturing, and wrangling, it looks like a bipartisan infrastructure deal that both parties can live with is in the works.

Good news: no tax hikes. But you’ll want to read on because we’re not out of the woods yet.

Before we dive in, I want to wish you a very happy Fourth of July. Wherever you are, and whoever you’re able to spend it with, I sincerely hope it’s fun, relaxing, and meaningful.

Now, onto the politics.

The bipartisan deal (can’t call it a bill yet) finds $579 billion of common ground from President Biden’s original $2.25 trillion American Jobs Plan.¹

It appears we have a deal on infrastructure.

It focuses on “hard” infrastructure — such as roads, bridges, rail, and public transit projects, as well as electric vehicle infrastructure and broadband internet — that both sides can agree on.

So, is it a done deal?

Not even close.

The current framework represents a compromise that makes no one happy, and there’s still a fair bit to hammer out (including how to pay for the plan).

The deal still needs to gather broad support in both parties, especially among those who think it’s too little or too much and might seek to scuttle the whole thing.

Fortunately, it doesn’t look like higher taxes are part of the deal. Though the math looks a little fuzzy from where I’m standing, it looks like funding sources could include repurposed pandemic funding, better IRS enforcement, and possibly digging through couch cushions for spare change (joking).¹

So, that means my taxes won’t go up, right?

Not so fast.

There’s another bill on the table. And it’s a $1.8 trillion doozy.²

The second bill, called the American Families Plan, focuses on so-called “human” infrastructure and contains many Democrat-backed priorities like childcare, climate change, health care, and education.³

Basically, the initiatives that couldn’t get Republican support are packaged up in a separate bill.

It looks like the Democrats are planning to pass that bill through a reconciliation process that doesn’t require Republican support to get through Congress.

Inside that bill are the tax increases we’ve been on the watch for. Higher taxes on wealthy individuals and corporations, as well as eliminating the step-up basis on inherited assets, among other tax hits.⁴

Since the bills are independent, it’s really not certain yet which (if either) will pass. Or when.

Will one pass and not the other? Will both grind to a halt this summer?

Hard to say.

What does all this mean?

That depends on where you’re standing. For industries expecting to benefit, it means an influx of tasty government cash.

For those worried about America’s crumbling infrastructure, it represents some critical moves in the right direction.

For those concerned about the spending spree the government’s been on (and how we’re going to pay for it all), it’s another brick in a looming wall of debt that will eventually come due.

Bottom line, it’s not nearly over yet. I strongly suspect the coming weeks will be full of more politicking, more grandstanding, and more arm twisting.

I’ll reach out when I know more.

Now, go enjoy your summer. You deserve it.

Infrastructurally yours,

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
www.independentadvisorsnw.com

¹_{https://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/a-win-for-roads-and-no-tax-hikes-infrastructure-deal-takeaways}

²_{https://www.cnbc.com/2021/04/28/biden-american-families-plan-whats-in-it.html}

³_{https://www.cnbc.com/2021/06/27/infrastructure-gop-senators-say-deal-can-go-forward-after-biden-walkback-.html}

⁴_{https://taxfoundation.org/american-families-plan/}

_{Chart source: https://news.bloomberglaw.com/environment-and-energy/a-win-for-roads-and-no-tax-hikes-infrastructure-deal-takeaways}

This information is not intended to be a substitute for specific individualized tax advice. We suggest that you discuss your specific situation with a qualified tax professional.

Getting it wrong?

Investment Advisor · Jun 24, 2021 ·

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What happens when the predictions are wrong?

Is it time to panic?

Is it time to ditch our strategy?

It’s a fascinating question because it cuts right down to the question of what it means to live in an uncertain world.

Humans are wired to dislike uncertainty.¹

And we’re used to a fair amount of (often unwarranted) certainty in the models and paradigms we use to make sense of the world around us.

We’re so attracted to certainty that when economic forecasts and reports come back with “surprises” (also known as being wrong) we tend to freak out.

Especially when the news trumpets every weird bit of data like it’s a huge deal.

Over the last few weeks and months, we’ve had a lot of “surprise” reports.

Inflation surprises.

Job market surprises.

Housing market surprises.

Economic growth surprises.

Why are we so surprised?

In a year like 2021, the margin for error is greater than ever.

Predictions, forecasts, and expectations that are based on averages, trends, and other backward-looking methods are ill-equipped to handle the outliers and oddities of a year that’s unlike anything that has come before.

When in history has an entire global economy simply come to a halt?

And then arthritically restarted with many creaks and groans.

To my knowledge, it’s never happened before.

Of course the data is going to have surprises.

We’re probably going to get a lot of things wrong.

I can’t wait for the best-sellers written about all the ways we could have done things better.

So. What does that mean for you and me?

Crystal balls are out of commission.

Surprise is the order of the day, the week, and the year.

The models haven’t caught up yet (though that’s not stopping anyone from issuing very confident predictions).

So we’re being careful and looking out for the opportunities (as well as the hidden pitfalls) in these uncharted waters.

We’re cultivating patience, gratitude, and our ability to make good decisions with incomplete information.

To staying frosty,

Goran Ognjenovic
Independent Investment Advisors
(971) 350-8068
www.independentadvisorsnw.com

P.S. So many folks are making big life changes. Are you? Anything you’re excited to share? Hit “reply” and let me know.

¹_{https://www.psychologytoday.com/us/blog/the-right-mindset/202002/why-uncertainty-freaks-you-out}

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